CFL Central Columns

So It Comes Down to This

October 30th, 2011

Remember when we all took calculus, trigonometry, algebra, geometry, and other forms of advanced math in school – and we could never figure out why?
Simple – it was so we could figure out the playoff potentials in sports toward the end of a season!
It has been many years since the CFL has had so much riding on the final regular season weekend.
Let’s break it down…

Toronto and Saskatchewan are playing out the string – and getting ready to go… snowmobiling?
Hamilton win or lose in Toronto will finish third in the East, and be traveling to either Winnipeg or Montreal for the East Semi-Final.
And that’s the end of the easy stuff.

Montreal and Winnipeg… first place in the East… Winnipeg won the season series 2-1… both have 10-7 records.
Here’s an ironic situation for you… the Bombers crapped the bed at home against Toronto, and handed the “control” for first back to the Alouettes.
But thanks to the Stampeders walking into Montreal and winning – Winnipeg once again control their own fate… all they need to do is go into Calgary and knock off their new best friends.
A Winnipeg loss isn’t tragic – provided the Lions beat the Als in BC… and the Lions certainly have something to play for as well.
Long story short – to finish first in the East, the Als have to win in BC and hope the Bombers lose in Calgary.

BC, Edmonton, and Calgary are all technically tied for first in the West with identical 10-7 records.
Just an aside… 5 teams going into the final week of the season at 10-7? Has that ever happened before?
BC hold the hammer in the West – having won the season series 3-1 over Edmonton, and 2-1 over Calgary.
Edmonton gets the nod over Calgary – winning the season 2-1.
Here we go…

A BC win over Montreal clinches first in the West for the Lions.
BC could afford to lose, provided Winnipeg wins in Calgary and Saskatchewan wins in Edmonton… and BC will know what they need to do by game time, as their game is the final on the schedule.
If the Lions have nothing to play for, neither will the Alouettes – as it would mean Winnipeg won in Calgary and took first.

An Edmonton win over Saskatchewan gives the Esks at least second, with a shot at first in the West.
Then they have to hope for a Lions loss.
An Edmonton loss, and they have to hope for a Stamps loss – so Edmonton won’t finish third.

A Stampeders win over Winnipeg gives the Stamps a shot at first or second.
Combined losses by BC and Edmonton are the only way Calgary can finish first.
A win by Calgary and a loss by either Edmonton or BC would give the Stamps second in the West.
But a win by both Edmonton and BC – sends Calgary to third, and a trip to Edmonton for the West Semi-Final.
Naturally a Calgary loss means third place… period.

That should be the scenario… hope it isn’t too outrageous to understand.
Let the games begin!

dave@cflcentral.net

Entry Filed under: CFL Football